U01.21.019 Negative Predictive Value (NPV)

Learning Objective:
Understand and apply the formula for NPV, which measures the probability that a patient with a negative test result truly does not have the disease.


Formula:

NPV = \frac{TN}{TN + FN}


Explanation:

  • TN (True Negatives): Patients who do not have the disease and test negative.
  • FN (False Negatives): Patients who have the disease but test negative.
  • NPV indicates how likely a negative test result truly reflects the absence of disease.

Interpretation:

  • High NPV → most negative results are true negatives
  • Influenced by disease prevalence: lower prevalence → higher NPV

Example:

If a test identifies 80 true negatives and 20 false negatives:
TN = 80, FN = 20

NPV = \frac{80}{80 + 20} = \frac{80}{100} = 0.8

Answer: NPV = 80%


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